道路运输供需品质分析与需求预测

Forecast for transportation demand from analysis of transportation demand & supply quality

为构建科学的道路运输预测体系、准确把握运输需求变动提供新的预测理论支撑,有必要对运输需求和运输供给的经济内涵进行重新诠释。运用需求函数和供需平衡理论分别对运输需求与运输价格的变动关系、运输品质与运输需求的变动关系进行敏感性分析。分析表明:运输需求具有层次性特征,运输供给具有异质性特征;历史运量与未来需求量之间受供需条件约束,不应简单等同。分析结果表明:若供给与需求吻合,可沿用现有预测方法;若供给不足以满足需求,可将运输需求划分为价格敏感型和品质敏感型两类,运用供需弹性分析理论考察其供求关系变动规律,预测未来需求增量。

In order to establish a scientific transportation forecasting system and accurately get to know the forecasting theory in transportation demands, it is necessary to re-discuss the implications in the transportation demands and supplies. This paper, through demand functions and demand-supply balance theory, carries out a sensitive analysis on the relationship between transportation demands and price variations, and the relationship between transportation quality and demand variations. The authors find that the transportation demand is characterized by its gradation while the transportation supply is featured by heterogeneity, and that the recorded transportation volume and the future demands are restricted by supply-demand conditions, which should not be taken as equivalent. The results show that if the supply can meet the needs of demands, the existing forecating method can still be used. If not, the demand can be futher divided into price sensitive mode and quality sensitive mode. The paper, at last, by means of elastic analysis theory, observes the variation law of the relationship between supply and demand and forcasts the future increases.