个人积累制和现收现付制下养老金均衡收益率的影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Equilibrium Profit Rate of Pension under Systems of Personal Accumulation and Cash Basis

分析养老保险模式从现收现付制向个人积累制转轨过程中可能存在的问题,并给出政策建议.建立个人积累制和现收现付制下的经济增长模型,对均衡收益率的影响因素进行分析,并揭示其政策含义.利用Samuelson-Diamond重叠代模型推导2种制度下的平衡增长路径,对有关参数进行比较静态分析.当现收现付制下出现居民储蓄不足时,向个人积累制过渡,可以改进经济效率;当储蓄过度时,转轨则可能导致经济效率下降.不论采用哪种制度,养老金的增长均有赖于有效劳动人口的增长和劳动生产率的提高.当人口年龄结构面临不利变动时,养老金增长的重要途径是发展教育产业,增加人力资本投资.

Problems may exist in the pension insurance model during transition from the cash basis system to the individual accumulation one. In this paper, the problems are analyzed and proper policies are proposed. By setting up the economic growth models of the two systems above, the influence factors of equilibrium profit rate are analyzed, the implication of the corresponding policy is revealed. Using the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generation model, the equlibrium growth routes of the two systems are deduced, the comparative static analysis of the related parameters is made. When the citizen saving is deficient, system transition from cash basis to personal accumulation can improve the economic efficiency. Contrarily, then the saving is excessive, the transition may cause decline of the economic efficiency. Whichsoever system is adapted, the pension growth depends on the growth of effective labor population and improvement of labow productivity. When disadvantageous change of population age structure occurs, the main way to improve pension is to develop education industry and to increase the investment of human capital.