高速公路事故预测微观模型研究

Research on Freeway Traffic Safety Microcosmic Evaluation Model

通过介绍国内外的主要交通安全宏观评价模型和微观评价模型,基于美国的乡村两车道事故预测模型而建立的山区高速公路四参数的交通事故与道路线形参数的关系模型,经非线性回归法检验证明,能够得到与实际发生事故数基本吻合的数据。

Through introducing the main traffic safety macroscopical evaluation model and microcosmic evaluation model at home and abroad, a relation model was set up between mountain freeway＇s four parameters traffic accident and road alignment parameters based on accident models for two-lane rural segments in America. Being examined by non-linear regression, this model can get the data which are close to the real accident number.