区域物流需求预测及灰色预测模型的应用

Forecast of Regional Logistics Requirements and Application of Grey Prediction Model

区域物流需求预测是区域物流规划和决策的前提,区域物流需求属于派生需求,由区域经济发展水平决定,因此区域物流需求预测的范围除物流需求本身内容以外,与物流需求紧密相关的各个经济指标也属于区域物流需求预测的范畴。区域物流需求预测有多种预测方法,其中灰色预测模型具有对数据要求限制少、中短期预测精准等特点,特别适合区域物流需求的预测。本文从区域物流需求预测内容、指标选择和预测方法三方面进行了系统研究,首次全面综合地提出了区域物流需求预测的内容及其对应的评价指标,在预测模型的实际应用上具有一定的创新。

The forecast of regional logistics requirements is the precondition of regional logistics planning. The regional logistics requirements belong to derived requirements, It＇s decided by the level of regional economy. So the range of the forecast of regional logistics requirements include not only the logistics requirements itself, but also some target of economy. The method of the forecast of regional logistics requirement is multifold, but the Grey Prediction Model is the best method because it needs less data and is accurate for middle and short periodic forecast. The paper has studied the contents, choice of target and method of the forecast of regional logistics requirements. The paper has produced synthetically the contents and the corresponding target of the forecast on regional logistics requirements for the first time and it has some innovation in application of forecast model.