财政收支对农民工就业能力影响研究

The effect explore between financial revenue and expenditure and the employability of migrant workers

目前农民工流动就业的规模约为1.2亿,还有1.8亿农村剩余劳动力,如何解决3亿农村剩余劳动力的就业问题,成为中国经济发展和社会稳定面临的巨大挑战。本文从国家财政收支角度研究其对农民工就业能力的影响,利用1995年至2006年全国农民工就业与国家财政收支数据,采用OLS方法进行回归分析,发现在其他条件不变的情况下,单独考虑财政收入(支出)对农民工就业影响时,国家财政收入(支出)每增加1亿元,农民工就业人数增加约2 000人;财政收入和财政支出联合对农民工就业人数有显著影响,保持适当国家财政赤字运行有助于扩大农民工就业。到2015年,我国可基本解决近3亿农村剩余劳动力就业问题。

At present there are about 120 million migrant workers＇, and around 180 million surplus rural labor in China, how to resolve the problem of employment of about 300 million surplus rural labor is becoming a giant challenge which economic development and social stability in China faces. The paper explores the effect on the employability of migrant workers, which are brought by the state financial revenue and expenditure. It takes nationwide data of migrant workers and state f＇mancial revenue and expenditure from 1995 to 2006, and uses OLS to estimate the employability. The results shows that as the state increase its financial revenue or expenditure by RMB 100 million yuan, the number of migrant workers will rise by about 2 thousand people when only considering the effect of state financial revenue or expenditure. while when considering them together, the proper state financial deficits help to enlarge the employability of migrant workers. By 2015, China will resolve the problem of employment of nearly 300 million surplus rural labor.