商丘市小麦锈病预测模式研究

Study on the Prediction Model of Wheat Rust in Shangqiu

以商丘市1995～2005年的小麦锈病发病面积、地面气象资料和大气环流特征量为依据,利用相关系数法进行因子普查,筛选出了影响商丘市小麦锈病发生和流行的主要地面气象因子和大气环流特征因子及其时段。利用多元回归方法建立了发病面积的数学预测模型。多元回归模型历史拟合准确率为87.2%,利用2006年的气象资料进行试预报,预测准确率93.8%。

Based on the investigation data on the diseased area,the atmospheric circulation factor and the meteorological record during 1995～2005 in Shangqiu,the degree of wheat rust was analyzed and the characteristic of the meteorological condition affecting winter wheat rust was studied in terms of correlation analysis.The predicated model was set up with stepwise regression and the accuracy of the predicated models was 87.2% and the extrapolated prediction accuracy can achieve 93.8%.