辽宁省耕地面积动态变化及驱动力研究

Study on the Trend and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Area Change in Liaoning Province

利用统计数据和普查资料,分析了辽宁省1949～2005年耕地面积变化趋势,利用主成分分析法对影响耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子进行分析。结果表明:辽宁省耕地面积变化总体上呈现快速增长-逐年下降-波动下降的趋势;社会-经济-科技综合作用、自然灾害和退耕还林还草政策等是影响耕地面积变化的三大因素,为辽宁省耕地资源的保护与可持续利用提供一定的科学参考。

The macro-trend of cultivated land area change in Liaoning province during the period from 1949 to 2005 was analyzed on the statistical data.The driving factors affecting the cultivated land area change in the province were quantitatively analyzed by with principal component analysis method.The conclusions were as follows：①The cultivated land area change in Liaoning province had experienced 3 stages since recent 57 years,i.e.,the nlargement,slow reduction and fluctuated reduction.②After the analysis,it was found that there were 10 driving factors affecting the cultivated land area change in three aspects：a.the synthetic effect of social,economic,scientific and technological actor;b.soil conservation program and c.natural hazards actors.The study results can provide the scientific basis for rationally use and effectively protect the cultivated lands and for achieving the sustainable development of regional agriculture in the province.