热带气旋路径客观预报的若干问题

SOME ASPECTS IN OBJECTIVE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

对多时刻环境场因子与热带气旋路径相关的统计分析表明，初始时刻环境场因子对热带气旋路径的预报能力随预报时效的增长而下降；未来时刻环境场因子的预报能力高于初始时刻环境场因子；对于一定预报时效的热带气旋路径，具有较高预报能力环境场因子出现时刻大多不与预报时效同时刻；对于４８－１２０小时的预报时效，初始时刻后４８－７２小时的环境场因子具有较高的预报能力。对ＮＷＰ产品进行统计释用的热带气旋路径预报模式优于用初始场因子构造的统计预报模式。以上结论可作为构造热带气旋路径客观预报模式的依据。

As shown in a statistical analysis of the relationship between environmental fields at varied times and tropical cyclone motion,the forecasting ability of initial environmental field predictors for tropical cyclone motion decreases with valid time and that of future environmental field predictors is better than one of initial environmental field predictors;the time at which forecasting ability of predictors is better mostly does not appear over the same valid time forecast,For valid time of forecast at 48-120 hours the time at which forecasting ability of predictors is better appears mostly at 48-72 hours from initial time.The forecasting errors of statistical interpretation models for forecasting tropical cyclone motion by using NWP data are less than one of statistical models by using initial environment field predictors.These results are to become foundation of constructing models for objective forecasting tropical cyclone motion.