基于最大Lyapunov指数对腐蚀深度的预测

Forecasting Corrosion Depth Based on the Maximum Lyapunov Exponent

油气管道随着服役时间的增加,因腐蚀引起的管道穿孔和断裂等事故隐患随之加大,对腐蚀管道进行可靠性预测具有重要作用。鉴于此,介绍基于最大Lyapunov指数对腐蚀深度预测及其评估方法,并利用茂名石化减压塔泵–28入口阀后的6号电阻探针测试的腐蚀深度数据,对腐蚀状况作了进一步预测。预测与评估结果显示:腐蚀深度误差均小于6%,平均误差为3.58%,预测精度较高,表明所提出的基于混沌理论的预测方法具有一定的合理性,能够为管道的维修和安全管理提供参考依据。

Pipeline of oil and gas have an increase risk because of pipeline punctures and rupture caused by corrosion. With the aim to forecast pipeline corrosion, the prediction model of corrosion time series is presented based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent. In addition to presenting technical details of the method, the corrosion data tested by electricity resistance probe No.6 after inlet valve for vacuum tower bottom pump No.28 is used for further forecasting corrosion situation. Finally ,the predicted results shows that prediction has a more high precision, and the error is less than 6%, as well as the average error is 3.58%, also indicated that the prediction ways based on chaos theory is reasonable in the corrosion research, which can supply a scientific basis for pipeline repair and safety management.