服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响--基于豪斯克-麦奇收入不对称效应的验证

The Effect of Service Trade on U.S.Current Account Deficit-Test Based on Houthakke-Magee Income Asymmetry

本文尝试构建一个基于H-M效应的模型,分析H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字变化的影响机制。并就该模型对美国经常账户赤字变化的解释能力进行验证,结果表明H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字的变化趋势具有较好的解释力。在此基础上,本文应用1986-2005年的数据分别估算了美国商品和服务品进出口收入弹性系数。估算结果显示,与商品进出口收入弹性系数相反,美国服务出口的收入弹性系数大于进口的收入弹性系数。为了探讨服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响,应用基于H-M效应的模型分析美国服务贸易的发展对其经常账户赤字变化的影响。

In comparison with goods, the income elasticity coefficient for services import is significantly smaller than the income elasticity coefficient for services export in U.S.. In a word, the income elasticity coefficient for services trade appears Houthakke-Magee income asymmetry. The model based on Houthakke-Magee income effect has better explanatory power to U.S. current account deficit change. This paper tries to using the model to study the effect of services trade development on current account deficit change.