摘要
本文利用我国1995年第一季度到2007年第一季度的季度时间序列数据,对国内投资、出口贸易与中国经济增长的关系进行实证研究,结果表明我国经济增长具有明显的"资本扩张型"和"出口导向型"特征;国内投资和我国经济增长存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,出口与我国经济增长存在双向的格兰杰因果关系;长期内出口对我国经济增长波动的贡献大于国内投资的贡献。
This article mainly analyzes the relations between domestic investment, export and economic growth in China by using the quarterly time series data from 1995 to 2007. The findings suggest that China follows an investment-driven expansion path and an export-led growth path. It is also found that one-way causal relations exist between domestic investment and economic growth, and two-way causal relations between export and economic growth. More specially, in the long term, the contribution of the export to the economic growth is greater than the contribution of the investment.
关键词
国内投资
出口贸易
经济增长
Domestic investment
Export
Economic growth
