现阶段工业产能过剩“窖藏效应”的数理分析及其实证检验

The Hoarding Effects of Existing Excessive Industrial Production Capacity:Mathematical Analysis and Empirical Evidence

针对过剩生产能力形成原因的不同学术观点,我们提出了厂商应对宏观经济波动的要素窖藏行为假说,即认为宏观经济的波动与冲击会导致产能过剩的形成。通过利用随机动态优化的方法建立了产能过剩形成的经济波动假说的数理模型,分析和刻画了由宏观经济波动引起的要素窖藏行为所导致的产能过剩形成机理。并利用1992—2005年分地区工业数据,采用基于非参数生产前沿面的过剩产能测度和带有异方差和自回归一致(HAC)修正的混合回归模型对产能过剩的波动窖藏假说进行了检验,验证了"窖藏效应"的存在性。

Based on different academic viewpoint about the causes of excess capacity formation,this paper puts forward firms' factor hoarding behavior hypothesis for macroeconomic fluctuation,arguing that macroeconomic fluctuation and shock can lead to excess capacity.We use the stochastic dynamic optimization method to build a mathematical model of economic fluctuation hypothesis about the formation of excess capacity,and then analyze and describe the excess capacity formation mechanism caused by factor hoarding behavior,which results from macroeconomic fluctuation.We also make use of the 1995-2005 region industrial data of China to take excess capacity measurement based on non-parameter production frontier and Pooled data regression model including heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistency modification to validate the existence of the hoarding effect.