新一代天气雷达在临近预报和灾害性天气警报中的应用

Applications of New Generation Weather Radar to Nowcasting and Warning of Severe Weather

利用新一代天气雷达制作临近天气预报和灾害性天气警报,必须从天气雷达观测入手。需根据临近预报和灾害性天气警报需求制定观测方法。不同预报对象,要采取不同的雷达资料的数据处理方法,以便突出预报对象的回波特征。制作临近预报和灾害性天气警报的主要依据是雷达回波分析,掌握回波演变的全过程是雷达回波分析的基础,根据回波特征判断识别影响本地区的天气系统,通过回波分析判断回波的未来发展趋势。为了从回波上识别灾害性天气,需要建立各种灾害性天气的识别判据和方法。预报的主要方法是外推法,但预报结果还需要预报员根据预报经验最后作出预报结论。为了做好临近预报和灾害性天气警报,建立预报流程是非常重要的。

Making nowcasting and severe weather warning by New Generation Weather Radar need to Start from radar observations. Different weather systems must to use different methods of radar observations. Different observation methods and different forcast objects must to use different process methods of radar data for stressing echo characters. Nowcasting and severe weather warning are producted on the basis of radar echo analyses. Radar echo analyses need to grasp whole process of echo evolutions. Synoptic systems of impacting local weather are resolved according to the echo analyses. Severe weathers are distinguished with echo characters, future devdopment trends of echo are understood by echo evolutions. For identified severe weathers with radar echos, signature recongnitions and discerning means are built by the researches and the statistics of radar echoes. The main nowcasting method is the extrapolation, but the forcast experience is most important. The conclusion of the nowcasting is drawn by the forecasters based on their forecast experiences. Nowcasting technological processes needs to be formulated for better nowcasting and severe weather warning.