奥运气象服务社会经济效益评估的AHP／BCG组合分析

AHP/BCG Assembled Analysis of Socio-economic Impact Study about Olympic Weather Service

综合应用层次分析法(AHP方法)和波士顿矩阵(BCG矩阵)相结合的思路,将气象服务用户群对服务效益评估这个复杂系统的思维过程数学化、系统化,建立了定量的气象服务期望度/满意度组合矩阵分析模型。以2007年"好运北京"青岛国际帆船赛调查问卷为例进行实证分析,从用户反馈信息来考核对用户需求的了解和满足、气象服务时间和时效、气象服务宣传服务手段、服务人员综合能力、预报准确度和用户未来意向等6个主要项目,应用该模型来较为客观地评估奥运气象信息服务当前的四象限结构现状,掌握和判断其所处位置,发现问题进行改进,并预测该项目的未来发展变化。

Taking Olympic weather service as a case, a brand new assessment method of socio-economic impact was put forward, which constructs an Assembled Matrix model of Importance Degree and Satisfaction Degree of weather service. The method synthetically combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method and Boston Consulting Group Matrix （BCG） method together to get quantitative AHP/BCG matrix model and makes the complex thinking process of users mathematic and systematization, Taking ＂Good Luck Beijing 2007 Qingdao International Regatta＂ as an practical case, the model tries to measure six chief items： realizing and meeting users＇ needs, timely and efficient service, and dissemination approaches （websites, users＇ manual and so on）, ability of server, forecast accuracy, and users＇ future choice after the game. Through this assembled matrix model it could measure the current structures and corresponding position on four quadrants in the matrix model of each item, find problems and try to solve them, and forecast their development direction.