年调节水库兴利库容模糊聚类推求方法初探

Preliminary Study on Fuzzy Classification Method to Determine Yearly-Reservoir's Active Storage

传统方法探求水库兴利库容是采用库容排频法或典型年法，其所得库容易受样本客量或个别特殊年份的影响，缺乏必要的稳定性．实质上，水文典型年是一个模糊概念，一个实际年型只能是在多大程度上属于“某类年型”，而决非“某类年型”本身，基于对此的认识，本文采用模糊聚类方法初步研究了年调节水库的兴利库容推求问题．

The methods existing presently to determine reservoir's active storage include vol-ume frequency curve means and typical year means, but the active storage is lack of necessary sta-bility, which is, affected heavily by sample size or particular event. In fact, 'hydrologic typicalyear' is a fuzzy concept, a practical year only belongs to 'certain typical year' in a certain range,but never just the oneself of 'certain typical year'. Considering the hydrologic typical year deter-mined by fuzzy classification theory being good representatives and stability, the fuzzy classifica-tion model was extended to calculate active storage of yearly reservoir in this paper.