谁开创了贝叶斯学派?——对拉普拉斯1774年一篇文章的回顾

Who Established Bayesian Schools?Bayes or Laplace?

1764年,贝叶斯的遗作《机遇理论中一个问题的解》,是当今统计学界贝叶斯学派的开山之作,然而直到20世纪,贝叶斯的文章却并未对后世贝叶斯学派的发展产生重大影响。事实上,真正促使贝叶斯的思想在科学界得到广泛传播的关键人物是大科学家拉普拉斯。1774年,拉普拉斯发表的关于贝叶斯理论的里程碑式的文章,使现代读者充分认识到拉普拉斯对贝叶斯学派发展所起的巨大作用,并从拉普拉斯的思想中获得了有益的新知。

“An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances” written by Bayes but posthumously published in 1764 did not give much influence on modern Bayesian schools until the twentieth century, although it was truly such an article ever written in history. In fact, it was the great Laplace who made Bayes＇ idea known to the science and academic circle. The major content of this paper focuses on introducing an article in detail by Laplace in 1774, which would be understood as a milestone about spreading Bayesian doctrine across the world, and modern readers would realize Laplaces＇ great contribution to Bayesian schools and would still learn something new from his thoughts.