基于CGE模型的张掖市水资源利用研究

Study on Water Resources Utilization in Zhangye City Based on CGE Model

作为一种规范的政策分析工具,CGE模型能够准确地模拟外生变量的变化对整个经济系统产生的影响。引入CGE模型作为分析工具,以黑河流域的张掖市为例,计算了工、农业生产的边际水价,并考察了供水变化对该地区社会、经济发展产生的影响。结果表明:张掖市工、农业生产用水的经济效益差别显著,提高农业用水效率,优化当前用水结构是缓解张掖市水资源危机的有效手段。此外,供水量的变化将会对社会劳动力就业产生较大影响。

Shortage of water resources is the main problem of protecting the entironment and developing society and economy in the Heihe River Basin located in an arid region in northwest China. The volume of available water resources in the study area is very limited, so how to effectively utilize the limited water resources and achieve the sustainable utilization of limited water resources are the key issues for the stable social and economic development in the drainage basin. As the powerful and economical means, in this study the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model is used to estimate the marginal water price of industrial and agricultural production in Zhangye City located in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, and the effect of water supply on the local social and economic development is lucubrated. The results show that the marginal water prices of agriculture and industry in Zhangye City in 2000 were 0.81 yuan/m^3 and 6.77 yuan/m^3 respectively, and the ratio of agricultural unit water consumption and industrial unit water consumption to the marginal contribution of the local GDP was 1：8. Therefore, it is the key of alleviating the shortage of water resources to save agricultural irrigation water and shift agricultural water consumption to industrial water consumption by developing stock raising. However, the influence of changing water supply on the local employment must be paid great attention to.