辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力研究

The Research about Ecological Carrying Capacity of Mining Cities in Central Liaoning

生态足迹模型是度量可持续发展的一种方法,加入经济因子以提高模型评价的准确性,为辽中地区矿业城市可持续发展提供决策依据。运用生态足迹模型计算了辽中地区矿业城市1985～2005年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力和生态赤字,利用压力—状态—响应模型耦合生态足迹、生态承载力和经济因子得到综合生态承载力指数,评价了辽中地区矿业城市1985～2005年综合生态承载力水平。结果表明：1985～2005年,辽中地区矿业城市人均生态足迹从1.79 hm^2增至3.53 hm^2,增长率为97.43%;人均生态承载力从0.78 hm^2增至0.81 hm^2,生态赤字从-1.01 hm^2增至-2.73 hm^2,增加了190.17%;综合生态承载力指数先降低,2000年以后略有增加,其中综合生态承载力水平1985年很高,1990年较低,1995、2000年一般,2003、2005年较高。对比生态足迹模型得到的生态承载力和通过压力—状态—响应模型得到的综合生态承载力指数,两者的变化趋势一致,具有很强的相关性。综合生态承载力指数评价指标的丰富在一定程度上增加了评价的公正性和准确性,可以更好地反映区域可持续发展程度,为其它生态足迹研究提供了一定的借鉴。

Ecological footprints model is a method of measuring the sustainable development. In recent years, ecological footprints model has been a widely accepted tool to quantify the sustainable development level in many fields. However, ecological footprints model neglected the sustainability of economy and science technology. In order to improve the veracity of the model we join the economic factors, and they would provide suggestions for the sustainable development of mining cities in central Liaoning. We calculated ecological footprints （EF）, ecological carrying capacity（EC） and budget of mining cities in central Liaoning between 1985 to 2005 by ecological footprints model; after coupling ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and economic factors by P-S-R model, we got synthetic ecological carrying capacity index and estimated synthetic ecological carrying capacity level of mining cities in central Liaoning between 1985 to 2005. Results showed that： in mining cities in central Liaoning between 1985 to 2005, the EF increased from 1.79 ha to 3.53 ha, the increasing rate was 97.43% ; the EC increased from 0. 78 hm^2 to 0. 81 ha; the budget increased from - 1. 01 ha to -2.73 ha, the increasing rate was 190.17% ; the synthetic ecological carrying capacity index reduced first, then increased from 2000; the synthetic ecological carrying capacity level was very high in 1985, lower in 1990, common in 1995 and 2000, and high in 2003 and 2005. The changing trend between ecological carrying capacity and synthetic ecological carrying capacity index was alike. The test result indicated that synthetic ecological carrying capacity index was developed from ecological carrying capacity, the relativity between them was high ; and the synthetic ecological carrying capacity index was coupled by ecological carrying capacity, ecological footprints and economic factors, the richness of indicators could also improve the veracity of the estimated results. So the explorative research of ecological footprints model and economic factors was carried out which could give some use for reference of the other research about ecological footprints model.