1953—2005年深圳灾害性天气气候事件的变化

Changes in Disastrous Weather Climate Events in Shenzhen of Guangdong Province During 1953-2005

以1953—2005年深圳市逐日最高、最低、平均温度资料为基础,分析近50a来深圳市的气温变化特征,通过气候变暖前后灾害事件的次数和强度的对比,分析了灾害性天气气候事件的变化规律。研究表明,在全球气候增暖和城市化快速发展的过程中,深圳市的灾害性天气气候事件发生了明显的变化:变暖前后,暴雨次数无明显变化,但20世纪90年代极端降水事件加剧;雷暴日数减少;霾现象日趋严重;高温日数明显增加,持续高温加剧;低温、低温阴雨天气明显减少;影响深圳的热带气旋数量减少,但降水强度在加大。

Based on Shenzhen＇s temperature observations from 1953 to 2005, the temperature time series were represented with average, maximum and minimum temperatures. By using the statistical method, linear analysis and Mann-Kendall method, the change in temperature for Shenzhen was studied, and by contrasting the frequency and intensity during different periods before and after 1987, the change characteristics of disastrous weather and climate events were discussed. The results show that under the climate warming and the rapid development of Shenzhen, except the frequency of heavy rain events the extreme precipitation has become more serious after the 1990s. The annual number of thunderstorm days has decreased, and the haze phenomenon aggravated increasingly. The high temperature days and continuous high temperature events have obviously increased, while the low temperature and the low temperature with rainy events decreased. The frequency of the tropical cyclone influencing Shenzhen has decreased, but its impact on heavy rainfall become more serious.