中部农村规模养殖生态系统管理策略的系统动力学仿真分析

A System Dynamics Simulation Analysis on the Management Policy of Rural Scale Livestock Breeding Ecosystem in Centre China

农村规模养殖生态系统是一个由养殖业、种植业、能源、环境和管理构成的复杂系统,对养殖废弃物的有效管理是该系统安全与可持续发展的保障.以地处中国中部的江西省萍乡地区兰坡村规模养殖生态系统为例,基于系统动力学反馈仿真分析理论,运用相应的主导基模,分别对2002- 2015年系统实施沼气能源利用、沼液与灌溉水分流、冬闲田与旱地沼液蔬菜种植三项策略工程后的系统状况进行情景仿真,定量论证实施三项策略工程的必要性及其产生的经济、生态效益.模拟结果同时揭示出系统内土地等自然资源的有限,导致以循环利用为前提的养殖废弃物污染治理能力有限,因此建议农村规模养殖控制适度的发展规模.三项策略工程已付诸实施,对系统内规模养殖二次污染的治理已见成效.

The rural scale livestock breeding ecosystem is a complex system composed of breeding subsystem, planting subsystem, energy sources subsystem, environment subsystem and management subsystem. The availability of the residues treatment is the guarantee of the security and sustainable development of the ecosystem. A case of the LanPo scale pig breeding ecosystem, located in Pingxiang Region, Jiangxi province, Centre China, is studied based on the system dynamics feedback and simulation analysis theory. With the corresponding dominant archetype, the scenarios between years 2002 to 2015 of the system actualizing the three items of strategic engineering are simulated individually to prove the economic and ecological benefit of government＇ s investment and scientific institution＇ s technology supporting. The three items of strategic engineering are biogas utilization engineering, separating anaerobic digester effluent from irrigating water engineering, the winter fallow cropland and the hilly land developed engineering. The simulation results have also exposed that for the limitation of physics resource, the capacity for recycle utilizing the breeding residues is limited, so we suggested that the scale of breeding should be controlled. The three items of strategic engineering are implemented, and its advantages to father the second pollution of livestock breeding are coming forth.