摘要
介绍了线性矩法的无偏估计与直接计算的关系,讨论了在概率权重矩计算过程中各系列之间的高度相关性及其对结果的影响,建立了直接计算线性矩法的Cv和Cs近似公式,叙述了适线问题和相应的经验频率公式。文中认为,水文频率计算时,由于资料的随机性和处理方法上的概化性,故用任何计算方法得到的结果,具有不同程度的不确定性,只能作为估计的初值,需通过时空上综合平衡,再经合理性分析和调整后,才能取用。
The relation between unbiased estimation and direct computation in linear-moment method is introduced. The high correlation between each series in the process of computing probability weighted moments and its impact on the results were discussed. The approximate formula to directly compute Cv and Cs of linear moments was developed. The curve-fitting and the concerned plotting-position formula were described. In hydrologic frequency computation, due to the randomness of data and the summarization of processing techniques, the results obtained by any computed methods may contain the indetermination at different degrees. So, it can only be taken as initial values of estimation. The rationality analysis and modification have to be made after comprehensive balance in time and space. Then the results can be used.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期16-21,共6页
Journal of China Hydrology
关键词
水文频率计算
线性矩法
统计参数估计
合理性分析
hydrologic frequency computation
linear moment method
statistical parameter estimation
rationality analysis
