“油荒”的迷雾与启示

The Puzzles and Insights of the "Oil Shortage"

2007年9-12月,全国各个省市出现以柴油为主的成品油供应短缺现象。此次"油荒"的直接导火索是国际市场油价上涨;柴油收率及柴汽比均有下降,加之部分地方炼厂减产,是此次"油荒"出现的主要原因;占我国柴油消费量一半以上的非车用油消费受阻且价格长期失控,致使此次"油荒"波及范围之广、影响之大,前所未有。"油荒"的出现是我国柴油供应长期紧张、成品油价格管理长期"畸形"的集中体现,它使我国长期存在的隐性石油市场浮出水面,证明政府对石油价格和资源配置的强势干预政策已经无法应对中国社会经济的市场化进程,必须进行改革。"油荒"带给我们几点启示:一是减少燃料油进口、为合格的地方炼厂提供充足的原油,提高其装置能力利用率以补充市场成品油供应;二是运用税收工具而不是政府直接定价调控石油市场和消费;三是要实现石油价格市场化,就必须使现行市场结构逐渐向有限竞争并最终向充分竞争过渡。

The rising of the international oil price is the direct igniter of this 'oil shortage'; the main causes for this 'oil shortage' are: the decrease of diesel yield and the diesel gasoline ratio,the personal suppressing of demand and the production decrease of some Teapot refineries. The appearance of the oil shortage is the concentrated embodiment of long-term diesel supply shortage and the out-or-control of price management of oil product prices. The oil shortage makes people aware of the invisible oil market that has existed in China for a long time. It proves that the government can not adapt to the market progression of Chinese economy with the enforced intervention policy on oil prices and resource allocation,and it must be reformed. The oil shortage brought us the following insights: firstly,the import of fuel oil should be decreased; sufficient crude oil should be provided to eligible refineries to improve its utilization rate of facilities and capacities and to complement the market supply of oil products. Secondly,taxation tools instead of government's direct pricing should be used to adjust and control the oil market and consumption; thirdly,the current market structure should allow limited competition and then full competition to enable the market orientation of oil prices.