主要气象因子对桃小食心虫越冬代成虫发生期的影响及模拟模型

The influence of main meteorological factors on occurrence period of hibernating adults of Carposina nipponensis Wals. and it's simulation model

于1999—2007年在宁夏灵武果园村等地,利用桃小食心虫性诱剂,通过诱集越冬代成虫预测桃小食心虫越冬代成虫高峰期.利用灵武1999—2007年5月的气象观测数据与桃小食心虫越冬代成虫始见日和高峰日进行偏相关分析.结果表明:5月下旬平均气温、相对湿度及5月份降雨量与桃小食心虫成虫发生有显著的相关关系.

Based on the observation of occurrence of Carposina niponensis Walsing and weather monitoring data in Lingwu county of Ningxia, the influence of main meteorological factors on occurrence period of the hibernating adult of the Carposina niponensis Walsingham was studied, and their relationship was analyzed with mathematical methool of statistics that the multiple regression equation could be applied in forecasting. The results showed that the occurrence of Carposina niponensis Walsingham had a significantly relationship with the average temperature, relative humidity in late May, and the rainfall in May.