利用非参数方法度量中国农业TFP水平及变动趋势

Measurement of the level of China's agricultural TFP and its changing trend by using non-parameter methods

通过生产率指数的数据包络分析方法度量了1982—2004年中国29个省份农业生产率水平及变动趋势,从地区角度进行了农业生产率的水平比较.结果显示:农业生产率(Total Factor Productivity,TFP)增长比较快的地区或省份,技术变化对TFP的增长起到了主导作用,但一些不发达省份或地区生产效率的改进对TFP的增长也起到了积极作用.从1982—2004年中国TFP变动趋势看,技术进步对农业生产率增长起到了主导作用,生产效率下降对TFP增长起到了负面效应,表明技术变化和相对应的效率变化总是向相反的方向变动.

Through DEA method of the productivity index, the agricultural productivity levels and changing trend of 29 provinces of China from 1982 to 2004 were measured and agricultural productivity levels of different regions were compared. The results showed that the technical changes had the leading role to TFP （Total Factor Productivity） growth in regions and provinces where the agricultural productivity TFP grew fast. The productivity improvement had the active role to TFP growth in some undeveloped regions and provinces. Through the changing trend of TFP in China from 1982 to 2004, technical progresses had the leading role to the growth of agricultural productivity. The decline of productive efficiency had the negative effect to TFP growth. The results declared that the technical changes always made an opposite alteration to related efficiency changes.