金融调控政策对房地产市场的影响

The Effect of Financial Regulation Policies on Real Estate Industry

本文运用事件分析法,采用多变量回归模型考察一系列房地产金融调控政策对房地产业的影响。分析表明,在短期内一系列金融调控政策对房地产上市公司产生了平均的显著为负的累计异常回报率,同时,也显著增大了房地产上市公司股票的系统风险,从而验证了一系列金融调控政策对房地产上市公司所产生的负的股东财富效应。因此,笔者认为单凭借货币政策难以解决我国现阶段房地产市场价格过高问题,还需借助财政政策、土地政策、引导消费预期等综合手段来调控房地产市场。

In this paper, we employ two multivariate regression models, in order to examine the short - term economic impact of financial regulation policies on real estate industry. The econometric result indicates that a series financial regulation policies has exerted significandy negative cumulative abnormal return on real estate listed company, at the same time, the systematic risk of stock significandy rises. Therefore, the authors think it was difficult to solve the real estate market price excessively high problem in China only by monetary policy, but also must with the aid of synthesis methods such as financial policy and agrarian policy to guide the consumption anticipation to regulate the real estate market.