防洪预警技术的探索研究

THE EXPLORATORY STUDY ON THE EARLY WARNING TECHNOLOGY OF PREVENTING FLOOD

本文分析了泰州通南地区和里下河地区水位的变化情况,引入面雨量、水位差等概念,对降水进行分级、分月建立时间序列,利用高斯一牛顿法进行非线性最小二乘数据拟合,建立回归预报方程。同时利用多家数值预报产品预报面雨量,代入方程计算出水位变化量,最终确定洪涝指数。其历史拟合情况和2005年试运行情况表明,预报效果较好,可以为防汛部门和相关单位提供科学依据。

This article analyzed the change of the water level in the Tongnan Area and the Lixiahe Area of Taizhou,introduced the concept of surface rainfall and water level difference, graded the precipitation, made up the time series month by month, carried out the non-linear least square fitting according to Gauss- Newton law, established the regression prediction equation, simultaneously forecasted surface rainfall by using many digital forecasting products , then calculated the water level change quantity by using the surface rainfall magnitude,and finally determined the flood index. The comparison of fitting of historical situation with trial operation in 2005 indicated that the forecast technology is fruitful, and the research results of this article may provide the scientific basis for the flood prevention department and the related units.