陇南山区小麦条锈病流行对气候偏暖的响应及对策研究

PREVALENCE AND PREVENTABILITY OF EPIDEMIC WHEAT YELLOW STRIPE RUST CAUSED BY WARMING CLIMATE IN LONGNAN MOUNTAINOUS AREA

根据陇南山区1957—2005年气象资料和相应的小麦条锈病流行资料的对比分析得出:与1957—1995年平均值比较,陇南各地1996—2005年年平均气温上升0.5～0.9℃,逐月平均气温也均有不同程度的上升,其中,冬季增温最为显著,为1.0℃/10a,在冬季尤以2月增幅最大,为1.3～1.6℃/10a。而陇南春季小麦条锈病流行程度与上年10月和当年1—3月平均气温正相关显著,所以,近10a冬季显著的增暖趋势与小麦条锈病流行程度逐年加重趋势相一致,由此与1990s以前相比,陇南山区冬小麦种植海拔高度及条锈病越冬越夏高界明显提高了100～300 m,致使小麦条锈病危害范围扩大,发生时间由3月提前到2月。本文结合当地特色农业经济发展战略,相应提出防御对策。

Based on the data of epidemic wheat yellow stripe rust and meteorological phenomena from 1957 to 2005 in Longnan mountainous area,the epidemic of wheat yellow stripe rust is analyzed. The main results are as follows： The mean annual temperature is increased by 0. 5℃-0. 9℃ during 1996--2005 in Longnan region,and the mean monthly temperature is also increased more or less,especially in winter and even increased 1.3- 1.6 ℃ in February. Probability of epidemic wheat yellow stripe rust is consistent with the tendency of warming climate,so the height of wheat planted and wheat yellow stripe rust survived is increased by 100-300 m according to 1990s,and it caused enlarging the harm of wheat yellow stripe rust and advancing the happening time from February to March. In this paper,some preventable measures are concluded by combining with agricultural economic development in this area.