路网可靠性评价方法综述

General Description of Evaluation Techniques of Road Network Reliability

从适用性、优缺点等角度对道路网可靠性评价方法进行了比较分析,简要介绍了3种主要道路网可靠性评价指标:连通性、行程时间可靠性和路网容量可靠性。在此基础上,分析了国内外在求解这些评价指标的过程中所形成的5种评价方法:终端可靠性评估方法、博弈论技术、蒙特卡罗方法、吸收马尔科夫链方法和微观交通仿真方法。最后指出道路网可靠性指标与评价方法尚在研究阶段,现存的可靠性评价方法对于评价交通系统运营状态仍存在一些问题。

This paper first introduces three primary indices for evaluating road network reliability： connectivity, travel time reliability, and network capacity reliability. With a review of the five different evaluation techniques to calculate these indices, including Terminal Reliability Estimation Methods, Game Theory, Monte Carlo Simulation, Absorbing Markov Chains, and Micro-simulation, a comparison of pros and cons across these techniques is made from a perspective of applicability. Finally, the paper points out, however, that the road network reliability indices and their evaluation methods are still in the course of further research, and yet the existing techniques are suffering shortcomings in evaluating operational status of transportation systems.