预售对住宅价格的影响及住宅价格指数衍生品的开发

The Effects of Forward Sales of Real Estate on Housing Prices and the Development of Housing Derivatives

作为远期实物交易制度的房地产预售并不必然导致住宅价格的上升,但在供求失衡条件下,远期交易的缺失有可能使得市场价格波动趋于加剧。由于房地产预售制在实践中存在诸多问题,于是我们可以考虑将房地产价格风险规避、投资和投机等交易意愿从实物交易转移到房地产指数衍生合约交易上,从而使得房地产市场的实物交易更多地体现真实的消费需求。衍生市场有效的套期保值、投机需求管理更有助于市场供求平衡的实现。

It is not true that the forward sale of real estate leads to the increasing of spot prices. Without the forward sales of real estate, the volatility of the spot price of private residential property would enlarge under the condition that supply falls short of demand. Because there are many problems in the process of the forward sale of real estate, we can introduce housing derivatives to manage price risks and speculation in housing markets. The hedging and speculation in housing derivatives markets is helpful to the equilibrium of supply and demand.