中国省域经济综合竞争力评价与预测的方法研究

On the Methods of Evaluation and Forecasting of Overall Competitiveness of Provincial Economy in China

省域经济综合竞争力是推动区域经济和现代市场发展的重要要素,同所有经济要素一样,既可以进行测度评价,也可以进行预测分析。当前,省域经济综合竞争力预测研究虽然是一个国内外研究者涉足甚少的领域,但它为中国的经济预测研究拓展了新的发展空间。本文着重从评价与预测的研究方法角度入手,分析了省域经济综合竞争力指标评价体系的建立和预测方法,并对省域经济综合竞争力评价和预测的效果作了简要评析。

Overall competitiveness of provincial economy is an important factor to promote the development of region economy and current marketing. Just as all the other economy factors, it can be evaluated and forecasted. At present, although forecasting research on overall competitiveness of provincial economy is a virgin soil, it has showed the new development aera to economic forecasting research in China. This paper, in via of evaluation and forecasting methods, analyses the foundation of indexs system and forecasting method on overall competitiveness of provincial economy and estimates the effects of evaluation and forecasting of overall competitiveness of provincial economy.