循环流化床锅炉水冷壁管高温磨损的不等时距灰色预测

UNEQUAL INTERVAL GREY FORECAST OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ABRASION RATE FOR WATER-WALL TUBES IN CFB BOILERS

针对循环流化床(CFB)锅炉水冷壁的磨损特点,引入灰色预测理论,采用在原始数据累加和累减过程中对时距进行权重处理的方法,建立了基于磨损量实测数据的水冷壁管磨损的不等时距灰色GM(1,1)预测模型。通过对预测值与实测值比较,验证了模型的精度与可行性。该模型不必考虑复杂的磨损影响因素,需要的原始数据少,可在小样本情况下做出较准确预测,计算方便。预测结果可为CFB锅炉水冷壁管的状态检修提供依据和指导。

Directing against the abrasion behavior of water-wail tubes in circulating fluldized bed （CFB） boilers, an unequal interval grey forecast model GM（1.1） has been established on the basis of grey system theory arid the measured data of high -ternperaturc ab rasion in CFB boilers,and during the process of consecutlvcly increasing or decreasing the original data, the method of weighting being used for the time interval. The accuracy and feasibility of the model have been verified through comparison of calculated values with measured ones. This model needn＇t to consider complex affecting factors of abrasion, only few original data being needed, and comparatively accurate prediction can be made under condition of small samples, being convenient in calculation, the result of predic- tion can provide with basis and guidance for condition - based repair of the water - wall tubes in CFB boilers.