陕西省水资源承载力动态研究

Study on Evolution of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Shaanxi Province

面临严重的水资源短缺问题，以及对可持续发展造成的制约，运用主成分分析法，从影响陕西省水资源承载力动态变化的15个指标中选出3个指标作为主成分，并用熵值法对其赋权，计算出1999～2004年陕西省水资源承载力的综合得分。结果表明，陕西省的人口和经济发展的持续增长，导致了水资源承载力呈现出恶化的趋势。图2，表4，参10。

The severe water shortage is the main factor of limiting the economy sustainable development in Shaanxi Province. This article selects three components from fifteen indexes which influence water resource carrying capacity in Shaanxi Province through component analysis method. Then the entropy value method is used to bestow weights to the three components, and the score of Shaanxi＇s water resource carrying capacity from 1999- 2004 is obtained. From the scores it is known that the two main pressures （population and economic development） of water resource carrying capacity increase year by year. On the whole, Shaanxi＇s water resource carrying capacity evolved to a bad direction in the six years.