镇江市生态安全的PSR—AHP评价

Ecological safety assessment for Zhenjiang city by PSR-AHP model

概述了生态安全与生态健康、生态服务功能、生态风险等概念之间的逻辑关系，提出生态安全是其中的核心内容。以镇江市为例，对城市的生态安全状况进行评价。结合AHP的PSR模型经改进后用于构建镇江市生态安全评价综合指标并确定了各项指标的权重，得出镇江市2001—2006年的生态安全综合评价指数。结果显示，近6a中，镇江市的生态安全综合指数呈上升状态，但增长速度不平稳。根据数据资料，分析了导致这种状况的深层原因，并结合数学模型预测了未来2a镇江市的生态安全状况。

This paper elaborates the logic relation of several concepts such as ecological security,ecological health,ecological service,ecological risk,and points out that ecological security is the core for these concepts.Taking Zhenjiang city as an example,this paper evaluates the city's ecological security.The ecological security assessment indicators and their weights for Zhenjiang city are determined by improved PSR-AHP model.The comprehensive ecological security index of Zhenjiang city from 2001 to 2006 is obtained.The results demonstrate that comprehensive ecological security index of Zhenjiang city was increasing since 2001,but the increasing velocity was not stable.Finally,this paper analyzes the radical reasons of this state,and predicts the ecological security of Zhenjiang city in the next two years.