基于实例的水资源预测方法概述

Summary of Water Resource Forecasting Methods based on Examples

基于合肥市近几年的城市生活用水量数据为例,对一些水资源预测方法进行讨论和比较。对合肥市城市生活用水量的现状进行简要的概述;介绍三种水资源预测方法即指数平滑法、灰色模型预测法和BP神经网络预测法的理论方法及模型;利用给定的资料数据,运用三种预测方法进行分析,通过拟和模型误差对比,判定最佳的预测方法。

This article talks about and compares some water resource forecasting methods based on urban water consumption data of Hefei in recent years. First, it gives a brief overview about Hefei urban water consumption in recent years; Second, it introduces theory and model of three water resource forecasting methods such as exponential smoothing method, gray model prediction and back propagation neural network; Finally, using the given data and three forecasting methods to analyze, it can determine the best prediction method by comparing model error.