基于GM(1,1)模型对垦区奶牛生产发展的预测

The Milk Cow Production Forecast of The Reclamation Area Based On The GM(1,1) Model

介绍了灰色理论GM（1,1）预测方法，利用黑龙江垦N2002～2005年年末奶牛存栏数建立了垦区奶牛生产发展预测模型。模型精度为很好，用该模型进行预测，能反映出垦区奶牛生产的发展变化情况，并基于预测分析对垦区奶牛发展提出建议和对策。

This paper introduces the grey system theory and the forecasting method of GM （1,1） model in brief, then establishes the milk cow production forecasting model through the breeding stock data of milk cow of HeiLongJiang reclamation area from 2002 to 2005. The precision of model is accurate. So this method is applied to predict the production, it can reflect the change of milk cow production correctly. On the basis of analyses, author puts forward some proposes about development of milk cow.