中国保险业发展与经济增长关系的研究

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationships between Economic Growth and the Development of Insurance Industry in China

利用单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等计量经济方法,对中国保险业发展与经济增长关系进行了实证分析。认为二者为近似的因果关系,经济增长对保险业发展的作用远大于保险业发展对经济增长的作用,并对作用的大小进行了量化;利用平行数据模型将31个省市数据分成5组计算出了各个省市保险业发展对经济增长的贡献度。样本为中国1980-2004年及31个省市1997-2004年的保险密度与人均国内生产总值的数据。

Econometrics methods of Unit root test, Granger-causality and Panel data model are used to analyze the relationships between the development of insurance industry and economic growth in China. The following conclusion has been arrived at ： the two are, to a lesser or greater, extent form an approximate causality relationship, and the effect of economic growth on the development of the insurance industry is far greater than that of the latter on the former. Moreover, panel data model is used to divide thirty-one provinces and cities into five groups to calculate the contribution of each province and city＇s development of insurance industry to economic growth. The sample of Chinese 1980 -2004 yearly and 1997 -2004 yearly insurance density （ID） of 31 provinces and per capita GDP are analyzed.