中国省际入境旅游发展影响因素研究——基于分省面板数据分析

Study on the Influencing Factors of the Development of China's Provincial Inbound Tourism——Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data

本文基于1997-2006年我国31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,用固定影响变截距模型,实证研究了决定省际入境旅游发展状况(收入与市场)的因素。结果表明:省际入境旅游有明显的脆弱性,其强度依东、中、西顺序梯度增大;服务设施对入境旅游的发展影响不显著,旅游资源是发展入境旅游的客观基础;在全国范围内,入境旅游发展的决定因素是省区经济、对外开放、交通设施,而在东中西部区域层次上,省际入境旅游的决定因素不相同。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces （municipalities and automonous regions） from 1997 to 2006, the paper empirically studies the factors that determine the development of inbound tourism （income and market） by using fixed effect change intercept model. The results indicate： Provincial inbound tourism is distinctly vulnerable. Its vulnerability degree increases by the order of the eastern, central and western region; service facilities are not so significant to the impact of inbound tourism while tourism resource is the objective foundation of developing inbound tourism. Nationwide, the decisive factors are provincial economics, opening-up policy and transport facilities, but the determining factors are not the same in terms of the regional layers of eastern, central and western part.