2007年中国宏观经济、金融形势分析

Analysis of the macro-economic and financial situations in China in 2007 The macro-economic research team of the financial

2007年中国宏观经济呈现出稳中略快的增长格局,实际 GDP 增长率略超过潜在增长水平,同时,在食品价格的推动下,通货膨胀率也达到2001年以来的最高点。从总需求的结构看,内需尤其是消费在拉动经济增长中的作用继续下降,贸易顺差将会继续加大,从而使得经济内部失衡和外部失衡问题变得更为突出。在金融形势方面,受股票市场牛市行情的影响,居民的储蓄存款增速持续下降,而企业对银行贷款的依赖程度也在下降,可以预计,随着资本市场的崛起,未来银行业将会越发感受到"脱媒"的压力。受居民资产组合和企业融资结构变化的影响,货币供应量作为货币政策中间目标的价值将会下降。同时,在利率体系依然没有理顺的情况下,货币政策将面临困境。

China＇s economy exhibited a stably rising growth curve in 2007 with actual GDP growth rate slightly higher than potential level of growth. Meanwhile, inflation rate reached its height since 2001, propelled by rising food price. From the perspective of overall structure of demands, the role of domestic demands, especially consumption, in economic growth will continue to decrease, favorable trade balance will continue to grow, therefore, making internal imbalance and external imbalance of the economy become more serious. In the financial industry, the bullish stock market led to decreasing bank deposits, and enterprises＇ dependence on bank loans is reduced. It can be expected that, with the rise of the capital market, the banking industry will more acutely feel the pressure of ＂disintermediation＂. Affected by change of household asset allocation and corporate funding structure, the value of currency supply as middle target of currency policy will decrease. At the same time, in the situation that the interest rate system is not straightened out, the currency policy will face a dilemma.