摘要
本文运用灰色建模理论中的灰色数列预测方法,利用北京密云县10个乡镇的畜禽粪便实际负荷量和最大负荷量的确定,对未来年份的畜禽粪便负荷预警值进行预测。结果表明:该流域各乡镇未来十年所受畜禽粪便的污染威胁均呈现逐年加剧趋势,其中石城和番字牌预警值上升最快;冯家峪、大城子和新城子次之,高岭、太师屯和不老屯呈现缓慢上升态势。
Based on grey sequence of 10 townships in Miyun County are prediction, the maximum load and used to predict the environmental practical load of livestock manure risk in each county in the future years. The result of current study indicates that the pollution caused by the livestock＇ threatens water quality in the watershed has been serious at different degrees, in whi counties are Shicheng and Fanzipai, and then Fengjiayu, Dachengzi and Xinchengz Taishitun and Bulaotun is increasing slowly. s excrements which C i. h the most serious That of Gaolin,
出处
《家畜生态学报》
2007年第6期158-162,共5页
Journal of Domestic Animal Ecology
基金
北京市科技项目"密云水库流域水土流失综合防治体系及示范推广研究"
北京市教委科技项目(KM200510028012)
北京市优秀人才计划20061D0501600225
关键词
水源保护区
畜禽粪便负荷量
灰色数列预测
污染风险
water source protection area
load of livestock manure
grey sequen
prediction
pollution risk
