有效需求波动、国有商业银行调整刚性与外资银行经营规模的选择

Fluctuation in Demand,Adjusting Rigidity of State-owned Commercial Bank and Choice of Operating Scale of Foreign Bank

本文建立了一个有效需求水平不确定情况下的两阶段混合寡占博弈模型,前瞻性地讨论了国有商业银行的经营规模表现出调整刚性的情况下,外资银行经营规模的选择、其实际想要吸收的均衡存款量与选定经营规模之间所存在的关系,以及这种关系将会带来怎样的宏观经济与社会福利后果等问题。研究发现:(1)当实际中的有效需求水平越低时,外资银行经营规模的"产能"过剩;(2)当实际中的有效需求水平越高时,外资银行经营规模的"产能"不足。这一发现具有实施促进经济增长、有效控制居民收入差距政策方面的理论含义。

In this paper, we establish a two-stage mixed oligopoly game model under demand uncertainty to analyze the operating capacity choice of foreign bank and the relationship between the demanding equilibrium deposit absorbed by foreign bank and its operating capacity when the operating capacity of state-owned commercial bank is fixed, as well as the macroeconomic and social welfare effects coming from this relation. We find that （1） when the effective demand is low enough, the operating capacity of foreign bank is excess; （2） when the effective demand is high enough, the equilibrium quantity of deposit foreign bank would like to absorb exceed its operating capacity.