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上海市闵行区日均气温对居民日死亡的影响 被引量：3

Study on the relationship between air temperature and daily mortality in Minhang district,Shanghai
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摘要 目的研究上海市闵行区日均气温与居民死亡的关系。方法应用广义相加模型(GAM)分析时间序列资料,在控制了与时间有关的中长期趋势、星期效应、大气污染等混杂因素的基础上,拟合二次函数分析了上海市日均气温与闵行区居民死亡的关系。结果2002—2004年闵行区总死亡人数为13 919人,平均每日死亡12.70人。从各年代数据来看,日死亡人数及其他多数相关指标年平均值在3年间变化不大或多呈波动变化。只有SO_2的年平均值从2002年到2004年连续增高。根据各温度点对应的气温每改变1℃居民死亡的相对危险度(RR)及95%CI,求得适温段为11.67℃-20.71℃。随着气温的升高和降低而偏离适温段时,每日居民死亡增加。结论目前上海市日均气温偏离最适温度段时,气温变化对居民死亡有影响。 Objective To assess the association between air temperature and mortality in Minhang district, Shanghai. Methods Generalized additive model（GAM） to analyze time series was used. After controlling for medium-term and long-term trends, date in the week, situation of air pollution etc. , this study estimated the association in virtue of quadratic curve and differential coefficient principle. Results The study was able to estimate an optimum temperature range （ 11. 67℃ -20. 71℃ ） by relative risk and 95 % confidence interval of deaths with air temperature variation. The mortality in Minhang district, Shanghai increased along with the fluctuation of temperature deviating from this range. Conclusion The findings from our study indicated that the current air temperature had an acute effect on mortality in mlnhang district, Shanghai.
作者 董英 赵耐青 汤军克 陈林利
机构地区 上海中医药大学预防医学教研室 复旦大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室 上海市闵行区疾病预防控制中心
出处 《中华流行病学杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2007年第12期1179-1182,共4页 Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
关键词 日均气温 死亡 时间序列 广义相加模型 Air temperature Mortality Time series Generalized additive model
分类号 R188.8 [医药卫生—流行病学]
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共引文献58

同被引文献21

  • 1刘方,张金良,陆晨.北京市气温与脑卒中发病关系的时间序列研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2004,25(11):962-966. 被引量：39
  • 2杨立明,王晓明,韩巍,张铭.气候因素对呼吸系统疾病的影响与意义[J].中国中医基础医学杂志,2007,13(7):540-541. 被引量：20
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引证文献3

二级引证文献23

中华流行病学杂志
2007年 第12期

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