企业增长与财务危机关系研究——基于电信与计算机行业上市公司的实证证据

Over-speed Growth,Financial Crisis and Risk Forecasting

本文在界定企业超速成长、财务危机的基础上,运用可持续增长财务理论,分析了超速增长对财务危机的影响机制。研究发现,企业超速增长显著地增大了企业发生财务危机的概率,并且超速增长率与财务危机发生概率显著正相关;而非超速增长的实际增长率与财务危机概率无显著相关性。从而验证了本文的理论假说,即企业的增长不一定带来企业价值的同步增长;企业的资源及其使用效率内在地决定了企业增长速度;组织管理的动态调整速度及有效供给程度对企业超速增长的财务危机效应具有重要影响。

This article utilizes the sustain-growth financial theory to analyze the influence of over-speed growth to financial crisis based on the definition of firm over-speed growth and financial crisis.The result shows that over-speed growth greatly enhances the probability of financial crisis,and it turns to be positive relations.Otherwise,the non-over-speed growth has no evident correlation with the probability of financial crisis.Therefore the theoretical hypothesis turns to be verified.It shows that the firm value doesn't necessarily increase at the same time with the firm growth;The inner resource and efficiency determines the growing speed of the firm;Dynamic adjustment and efficient supply of management has great influence on financial crisis brought by the over-speed growth of the firm.