国际原子能机构及其核查效能研究——以该机构在中东核查为例

IAEA and Its Efficiency in Verification——Four Case Studies of IAEA Verification in the Middle East

国际原子能机构自1957年成立以来,经历了产生、发展和完善三个阶段,其核查效能也处于动态变化之中。影响国际原子能机构核查效能有三个基本因素:该机构核查制度的完善程度、大国对该机构的支持度和受核查国融入国际体系的程度。为检验上述基本假设,本文考察了国际原子能机构在中东国家的核查实践,分析了其对以色列、伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗四国核查是否有效及其原因,最终证明上述假设基本成立。

Since it founded in 1957, IAEA has undergone three periods of formation, development and improvement. Meanwhile, its efficiency of verification has also experienced changes. The paper attempts to put forward a hypothesis that there are three factors contributing to its efficiency, namely, the perfection of the agency＇s verification mechanism, the support of great powers to the agency, and the integration of the verified countries into the international system. The in-depth case studies of IAEA verification in the Middle East countries of Israel, Iraq, Libya and Iran have proved the above-mentioned hypothesis.