我国对外贸易就业效应的区域差异分析——基于省级面板数据的检验

Studies on the Regional Difference of the Effect of Foreign Trade on Employment in China based on the Provincial Panel Data

本文利用1978～2004年的省级面板数据,将我国划分为东、中、西三大区域,考察了对外贸易的就业效应。结果表明,出口对国内就业具有显著的正向影响,进口对国内就业具有地区性差异;长期来说,不能以出口为导向来解决我国的就业问题,调整进口商品的结构,对解决就业具有十分重要的意义;我国存在着严重的资本替代劳动现象,应该发展劳动密集型产业;1997年的亚洲金融危机对我国就业造成了显著的负面影响。这表明,解决我国的就业不能脱离其他一系列宏观经济政策,需要将对外贸易政策、产业政策和汇率政策纳入同一个分析框架中进行。

This paper uses inter-provincial panel data from 1978 to 2004 to study the effect of foreign trade on employment of three areas of China, East China, Middle China and West China. The results show that exports have a strong positive effect on employment ,the effect of imports on employment shows regional differences;In the long term, export-oriented can′t solve the employment problem. It is of great significance to readjuste the structure of imported commodities to solve the employment; There is an obvious phenomenon that the substitution of capital for labor, so labor-intensive industries should be developed; The Asian financial crisis of 1997 has a seriously negative effect on employment; Therefore to solve China′s employment problem can′t be divorced from a series of macroeconomic policies, it is necessary to put foreign trade policy, industrial policy and exchange rate policy into the same framework of analysis.