呼伦贝尔典型草原区牧草气候生产潜力评估

Assessment of climate potential for forage production in typical grassland

利用迈阿密模型和Thamthwaite Memorial模型研究了呼伦贝尔典型草原区6个旗县牧草气候生产潜力，结果表明，牧草气候生产潜力在4925．500～5551．542kg／（hm^2·a），潜力较大，地区差异不很明显；最大潜力地区在降水量较多的陈旗以南一带，北部新右旗至满洲里一带的降水较少，气候潜力普遍偏低；牧草气候资源潜力的利用率陈旗以南地区为34．2％～37．9％，新右旗至满洲里一带为27．6％～30．9％，表明现实的生产力远未达到气候生产潜力，尚有很大潜力可以开发；与气温相比，降水量是限制该地区牧草气候生产潜力的主导因素，决定牧草气候生产潜力高低的关键因子是水热组合情况；在温度不变的情况下，降水每增加1mm，牧草的生产潜力增加8．7111～14．0877kg／（hm^2·a）；用气温、降水量与牧草气候生产潜力建立的6个县级单元气候评估模式均通过了0．01信度检验，模拟的平均相对误差均〈5％，可以用于未来气候变化条件下呼伦贝尔草地生产力的评估研究。

Calculated with Miami model and MatharnthwaiteMemorial model, the climate potential for forage production in the typical Hulun Buir Grassland is 4925. 500 - 5551. 542 kg/（hm^2·a）. With great general climate potential for forage production, the regional differences are not obvious. The maximum of the potential is in the areas south of Chen Qi where the precipitation is relatively high, while the potential is generally little in the northern part of New Right Banner to Manzhouli area where the precipitation is low. The utilization effi- ciency of climate potential is 34.2 % - 37.9 % in the area south of Chenqi, 27.6 % - 30.9 % in the area from New Right Banner to Manzhouli, indicating that the real productivity is far bellow from the climate production potential, and there is a great potential for development. Compared with temperature, precipitation is the dominant factor of climate production potential in the region. The composition of heat and water is the key factor for the production potential. When temperature remains unchanged, the forage production potential increases by 8. 7111 - 14. 0877 kg/（hm^2·a） with the precipitation increased by 1 mm. The six county-level climate assessing models established with the factors of temperature, precipitation and grassland productivity all passed 0.01 reliability test. The simulated average relative errors are 〈 5 %, so it can be used in future assessment of climate change in the Hulun Buir grassland productivity research.