美国次级贷款危机:根源、走势、影响

The U.S.Subprime Mortgage Crisis:Origin,Prospect and Impact

美国次级贷款危机源于房地产市场繁荣时期的大肆信贷扩张,当利率升高且房价开始下跌之后,借款人丧失还款能力,导致违约和丧失抵押品赎回权比率剧增,次贷危机开始显现。资产证券化则进一步将危机由抵押贷款市场传递到证券市场,使得危机迅速蔓延并传递到其他国家。此次危机对美国实体经济产生了很大影响,主要体现在房价进一步下跌,消费和投资出现萎缩,制造业产值下滑,就业状况恶化等。从上述已显现出的负面影响和美联储连续三次降息的反应来看,次贷危机还远没有过去,其未来走势并不乐观。所以,应该从不同层面深入分析此次危机并加以警示,主要涉及资产证券化中的风险防范、虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展、货币政策处理金融危机的有效性以及内部失衡与外部失衡的关系等问题。

The U. S. subprime mortgage crisis resulted from credit expansion arbitrarily while its housing market boomed. The crisis emerged because of high delinquencies and foreclosures when the borrowers lost solvency under new situation that the interest rose and the housing price dropped. Furthermore, asset securitization passed the crisis from mortgage market to securities market and made the crisis spread more widely, even to other countries. The crisis has made a great impact on U.S. economy： housing price continuing dropping; consumption and investment shrinking; slowdown in manufacturing and bad employment, etc. According to the above-mentioned negative impacts and three times that the FED has continued cutting rates, we can conclude that the crisis has not been over and the prospect is not much optimistic. So, we should analyze the crisis deeply in different aspects, such as risk evading in asset securitization; coordinated development between fictitious economy and real economy; the effectiveness monetary policy to financial crisis and the relationship between internal imbalance and external imbalance, etc.