黑龙江省气候变化趋势对小麦产量的影响

Impact of Climate Change Trend on Wheat Yield in Heilongjiang Province

利用黑龙江省1961～2003年逐日气象资料,采用世界粮食研究模型(WOFOST)和气候变化趋势分析的数学方法,分析了气候变化趋势对小麦产量变化趋势的影响。在黑龙江省中部、东部和北部相对湿润的小麦种植区域,辐射量降低趋势是小麦模拟产量降低趋势的主要气候原因;在松嫩平原西南部的齐齐哈尔市、大庆市和哈尔滨市,降水量增加的趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;在西北部的北安、五大连池、克山和克东4县,辐射量增加趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;黑龙江省小麦模拟产量变化趋势百分率的平均值为-1.57%/10a。

By using daily meteorological data of Heilongjiang province from 1961to 2003, with WOFOST model and mathematical analyses of the climatic change trend were used, the impacts of climate change trend were analyzed on wheat yield trends. In the relative wet middle, east and north areas of Heilongjiang province, the lowering radiation trend was an important elimate cause to the lowering simulation yield trends for wheat. In Qiqihar and Daqing cities of southwest area of songnen plain, Harbin city, the increasing precipitation trend was an important climate cause to the increasing simulation yield trends for wheat. In Beian, Wudalianchi, Kes＇an and Kedong county in northwest area of Heilongjiang province, the increasing radiation trend is an important climate factor to the increasing simulation yield trends for wheat.The change trend average value of simulation yield for wheat is -1.57%/10a in Heilongjiang province.