商业银行零售管理及目标客户流失概率预测研究

The Retail Management and the Prediction on Target client’s Churn Rate in Commercial Banks

随着金融脱媒趋势逐渐凸显,商业银行以批发业务为主的盈利模式受到了极大的挑战。零售业务逐渐成为未来商业银行利润空间的主要组成部分。同时,商业银行越来越重视零售客户关系的管理与维护,并且逐渐意识到对目标客户行为数据进行分析的重要性。分析商业银行零售客户的流失因素及流失概率是客户行为分析的重要方面。研究表明,影响商业银行零售目标客户流失的因素较多,在诸多影响因素中,经COX模型的筛选,客户年龄、观察期内客户使用的产品数等因素对目标客户流失的解释作用是十分显著的。这些因素或正向或负向地作用于目标客户流失概率。

With the increasingly obvious trend of financial disintermediation, commercial bank＇s profit mode, mainly lying on wholesale business, has been seriously challenged. Retail business will gradually occupy an important position in the future commercial bank＇s profit composition. At the same time, commercial banks pay more and more attention to the management and maintenance of client relationship, and gradually realize the importance of analysis on target client＇s behavior data, the key aspects of which is to analyze the causes and probability of client chum. The research reveals that, among varieties of factors affecting the chum rate of target clients under the selection of the COX model, client age and product amounts used by clients in the observation period make significant impacts on target client chum rate, positively or negatively.