辽宁省辽河流域水环境承载力的多目标规划研究

Studies on multi-objective programming of water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) in Liaohe Watershed.

为估算辽宁省辽河流域的水环境承载力,建立了水环境承载力多目标规划模型.运用情景分析法,分析了用水结构和排污结构对水环境承载力的影响,探寻了水环境承载力的优化途径,并估算其优化值.结果表明,研究区域水环境承载力各指标存在波动性,整体呈上升趋势,但水环境系统始终处于超载状态.情景分析表明,用水结构约束的增加,会减少水环境系统可承载的粮食产量,但有助于GDP和人口总量的提高;排污结构约束的增加则会抑制人口总量和GDP的增长.通过排污结构和用水结构的优化,水环境承载力各指标均有增加,水环境系统逐渐实现对粮食产量和GDP的可承载,但对人口总量的承载却始终处于超载状态.

In order to calculate the water environmental earring capacity （WECC） in Liaohe watershed of Liaoning Province, the multi-objective programming model.for WECC was built. The influence of the structures of water utilization and sewage discharge on carrying capacity was analyzed using scenario analysis; based on this, the optimization way of WECC was inquired into, and its optimization value was established. Each index of WECC in studied area fluctuated with entirely rising tendecy, and water environment system was all through in the overload formation. The scenario analysis showed that the increase of water utilization structure restriction could decrease water environment system carrying grain yield .amount, but help enhance of GDP and population total amount. The increase of sewage discharge structure restriction could control the growth of the population total amount and GDP. Through optimization of sewage discharge structure and water utilization structure, each index of WECC all increased. The water environment system realized gradually the carrying capacity on grain producing amount and GDP, but the carrying of population total amount was thorough on the exceeding carrying state.