论项目投资评价中的时间风险值效应及其选择

On Effect and Choice of Risky Index of Time in Project Investment Evaluating

基于现行现金流折现的项目投资评价的有效性取决于对项目现金流量预测的正确性,而项目现金流量具有预测发生的时间越遥远,现金流量不确定性的程度越大但又趋于相对稳定的特征。从这一特征出发,本文引入时间风险值进行折现调整这种系统可循的方法来解决在投资评价时难以预计的项目现金流量未来的不确定性问题,从而使不确定性条件下的项目投资评价更具有客观性。

The effectiveness of evaluating an investment project based on predicting cash flows depends on the uncertainty of its future cash flows, The remoter the cash flows are, the higher the uncertainty is, Because of this, this paper suggests to discount cash flows by applying risky index of time （RIT）, Thus, the discount rate used to discount the distant cash flows is higher that the discount rate used to discount the near cash flows, Through this systematic method, the risk caused by the uncertainty of future cash flows can be hedged in making investment decisions. To a certain degree, this approach is reasonable in evaluating investment alternatives under uncertainty.